Fed language engine
Compare the latest FOMC statement and speeches against previous meetings to see what really changed.
- Track word, phrase, and tone shifts
- Highlight hawkish vs dovish changes
- Build your own Fed “reaction function” view
Fed & macro analysis built for portfolio decisions
Turn Fed language into your next move.
OnPortfolio structures FOMC statements, speeches, and macro data into clear narratives, scenarios, and probabilities—so you can anticipate the next move of the Fed and the economy with discipline.
Macro Workspace
FOMC cycle · Scenario view
Policy narrative:
Gradual easing bias
Fed path probabilities (next 12 months)
Key Fed language
Statement: Risks to achieving inflation and employment goals are moving toward better balance, but the Committee remains attentive to inflation risks.
Portfolio impact
- Curve steepener bias
- Long duration crowded
- USD path data-dependent
Tools for anticipating the Fed & the cycle
Structured analysis instead of opinions: language, scenarios, and portfolio impact in one place.
Scenario & path analysis
Translate your macro views into explicit scenarios with probabilities and market expressions.
- Define rate path and inflation paths
- Attach instruments and levels to each scenario
- Record your probability updates over time
Macro dashboard & regimes
Organize the data that matters for Fed and growth: inflation, labor, activity, and financial conditions.
- See which data is pushing the Fed path
- Identify risk-on / risk-off regimes
- Keep a clean history of regime changes
Portfolio link & review
Connect your positions to your macro view so every trade is tied to a scenario, not a headline.
- See which trades depend on which Fed path
- Review P&L vs your stated scenario
- Refine your process after each cycle
From Fed communication to portfolio action
A repeatable process for every meeting and data release.
1
Set your prior
Before each FOMC and key release, define your base case, risk scenarios, and rough probabilities. Link them to actual trades.
2
Update with new information
After the statement, press conference, and data, see how language and numbers changed—and adjust your scenarios instead of reacting emotionally.
3
Measure & learn
Review how your probabilities, trades, and outcomes evolved over the cycle. Build a personal track record of macro decisions.
What OnPortfolio optimizes for
Not perfect prediction, but clear thinking about the Fed, the economy, and your risk.
Clarity first
See exactly what changed in Fed language and macro data, and how it lines up with your existing view—no more getting lost in headlines and noise.
Consistent process
Use the same framework every meeting: prior, update, decision. Over time, your “macro edge” is the discipline of repeating this cycle.
Probabilistic thinking
OnPortfolio helps you think in paths and probabilities, not calls and hot takes—so you’re ready for different futures, not just your favorite one.
Build a Fed & macro process you can trust.
Create a free workspace, set up your first scenarios, and start tracking how your views and the cycle evolve—meeting after meeting.
Start your macro workspace
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No card required · Cancel anytime · Designed for serious macro work